CarlShulman comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong
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Haven't there been a lot more than a million people in history that claimed saving the world, with 0 successes? Without further information, reasonable estimates are from 0 to 1/million.
Can you name ten who claimed to do so via non-supernatural/extraterrestrial means? Even counting claims of the supernatural I would be surprised to learn there had been a million.