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rwallace comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong
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The following summary of SIAI's position says otherwise:
http://singinst.org/riskintro/index.html
It seems you're confusing what you personally thought earlier with what SIAI currently thinks.
(Though, technically you're partly right that what SIAI folks thought when said institution was founded is closer to what you say than their current position. But it's not particularly interesting what they thought 10 years ago if they've revised their position to be much better since then.)
Ah, thanks for the update; you're right, their claims regarding difficulty and timescale have been toned down quite a bit.