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Unknowns comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong
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I certainly do not assign a probability as high as 70% to the conjunction of all three of those statements.
And in case it wasn't clear, the problem I was trying to point out was simply with having forbidden conclusions - not forbidden by observation per se, but forbidden by forbidden psychology - and using that to make deductions about empirical premises that ought simply to be evaluated by themselves.
I s'pose I might be crazy, but you all are putting your craziness right up front. You can't extract milk from a stone!
That's good to know. I hope multifoliaterose reads this comment, as he seemed to think that you would assign a very high probability to the conjunction (and it's true that you've sometimes given that impression by your way of talking.)
Also, I didn't think he was necessarily setting up forbidden conclusions, since he did add some qualifications allowing that in some circumstances it could be justified to hold such opinions.