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cousin_it comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong
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The outside view of the pitch:
Maybe there are some bits missing - but they don't appear to be critical components of the pattern.
Indeed, this time there are some extra features not invented by those who went before - e.g.:
I don't understand why downvote this. It does sound like an accurate representation of the outside view.
It may have been downvoted for the caps.
Given that a certain fraction of comments are foolish, you can expect that an even larger fraction of votes are foolish, because there are fewer controls on votes (e.g. a voter doesn't risk his reputation while a commenter does).
Which is why Slashdot (which was a lot more worthwhile in the past than it is now) introduced voting on how other people vote (which Slashdot called metamoderation). Worked pretty well: the decline of Slashdot was mild and gradual compared to the decline of almost every other social site that ever reached Slashdot's level of quality.
Yes: votes should probably not be anonymous - and on "various other" social networking sites, they are not.
Metafilter, for one. It is hard for an online community to avoid becoming worthless, but Metafilter has avoided that for 10 years.
Perhaps downvoted for suggesting that the salvation-for-cash meme is a modern one. I upvoted, though.
Hmm - I didn't think of that. Maybe deathbed repentance is similar as well - in that it offers sinners a shot at eternal bliss in return for public endorsement - and maybe a slice of the will.
This whole "outside view" methodology, where you insist on arguing from ignorance even where you have additional knowledge, is insane (outside of avoiding the specific biases such as planning fallacy induced by making additional detail available to your mind, where you indirectly benefit from basing your decision on ignorance).
In many cases outside view, and in particular reference class tennis, is a form of filtering the evidence, and thus "not technically" lying, a tool of anti-epistemology and dark arts, fit for deceiving yourself and others.
We all already know about this pattern match. Its reiteration is boring and detracts from the conversation.
If this particular critique has been made more clearly elsewhere, perhaps let me know, and I will happily link to there in the future.
Update 2011-05-30: There's now this recent article: The “Rapture” and the “Singularity” Have Much in Common - which makes a rather similar point.