ata comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong

23 Post author: multifoliaterose 19 August 2010 10:47PM

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Comment author: ata 20 August 2010 07:11:45PM 13 points [-]

I wish the laws of argument permitted me to declare that you had blown yourself up at this point, and that I could take my toys and go home. Alas, arguments are not won on a points system.

On the other hand, assuming he knows what it means to assign something a 10^-9 probability, it sounds like he's offering you a bet at 1000000000:1 odds in your favour. It's a good deal, you should take it.

Comment author: rabidchicken 21 August 2010 04:42:27PM *  4 points [-]

Indeed. I do not know how many people are actively involved in FAI research, but i would guess that it is only in the the dozens to hundreds. Given the small pool of competition, it seems likely that at some point Eliezer will, or already has, made a unique contribution to the field. Get Multi to put some money on it, offer him 1 cent if you do not make a useful contribution in the next 50 years, and if you do, he can pay you 10 million dollars.