ata comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong

23 Post author: multifoliaterose 19 August 2010 10:47PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Article Navigation

Comments (726)

Comments (726)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 20 August 2010 07:00:52PM 15 points [-]

I assign a probability of less than 10^(-9) to you succeeding in playing a critical role on the Friendly AI project that you're working on.

I wish the laws of argument permitted me to declare that you had blown yourself up at this point, and that I could take my toys and go home. Alas, arguments are not won on a points system.

My impression is that you've greatly underestimated the difficulty of building a Friendly AI.

Out of weary curiosity, what is it that you think you know about Friendly AI that I don't?

And has it occurred to you that if I have different non-crazy beliefs about Friendly AI then my final conclusions might not be so crazy either, no matter what patterns they match in your craziness recognition systems?

Comment author: ata 20 August 2010 07:11:45PM 13 points [-]

I wish the laws of argument permitted me to declare that you had blown yourself up at this point, and that I could take my toys and go home. Alas, arguments are not won on a points system.

On the other hand, assuming he knows what it means to assign something a 10^-9 probability, it sounds like he's offering you a bet at 1000000000:1 odds in your favour. It's a good deal, you should take it.

Comment author: rabidchicken 21 August 2010 04:42:27PM *  4 points [-]

Indeed. I do not know how many people are actively involved in FAI research, but i would guess that it is only in the the dozens to hundreds. Given the small pool of competition, it seems likely that at some point Eliezer will, or already has, made a unique contribution to the field. Get Multi to put some money on it, offer him 1 cent if you do not make a useful contribution in the next 50 years, and if you do, he can pay you 10 million dollars.

Powered by Reddit Powered by Reddit