timtyler comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong

23 Post author: multifoliaterose 19 August 2010 10:47PM

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Comment author: timtyler 20 August 2010 09:57:24PM *  0 points [-]

You seem to be thinking about reference class forecasting. In that particular case, I just meant looking from the outside - but the basic idea is much the same. Doomsday organisations have a pattern. The SIAI isn't an ordinary one - but it shares many of the same basic traits with them.