Perhaps compare a doomsday cult with a drug addict:
The outside view (e.g. of family and practitioners) looks one way - while the inside view often looks pretty different.

That's not what "inside view" means. The way you seem to intend it, it admittedly is a useless tool, but having it as an option in the false dichotomy together with reference class tennis is transparently disingenuous (or stupid).