timtyler comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong

23 Post author: multifoliaterose 19 August 2010 10:47PM

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Comment author: Perplexed 20 August 2010 03:22:31PM *  6 points [-]

I use a heuristic which tells me to ignore Pascal-like wagers

I am not sure exactly what using this heuristic entails. I certainly understand the motivation behind the heuristic:

  • when you multiply an astronomical utility (disutility) by a miniscule probability, you may get an ordinary-sized utility (disutility), apparently suitable for comparison with other ordinary-sized utilities. Don't trust the results of this calculation! You have almost certainly made an error in estimating the probability, or the utility, or both.

But how do you turn that (quite rational IMO) lack of trust into an action principle? I can imagine 4 possible precepts:

  • Don't buy lottery tickets
  • Don't buy insurance
  • Don't sell insurance
  • Don't sell back lottery tickets you already own.

Is it rationally consistent to follow all 4 precepts, or is there an inconsistency?

Comment author: timtyler 20 August 2010 11:46:07PM 4 points [-]

Another red flag is when someone else helpfully does the calculation for you - and then expects you to update on the results. Looking at the long history of Pascal-like wagers, that is pretty likely to be an attempt at manipulation.

Comment author: timtyler 21 August 2010 06:52:10PM 2 points [-]

"I believe SIAI’s probability of success is lower than what we can reasonably conceptualize; this does not rule it out as a good investment (since the hoped-for benefit is so large), but neither does the math support it as an investment (donating simply because the hoped-for benefit multiplied by the smallest conceivable probability is large would, in my view, be a form of falling prey to “Pascal’s Mugging”."

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