= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
multifoliaterose comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (726)
My estimate does come some effort at calibration, although there's certainly more that I could do. Maybe I should have qualified my statement by saying "this estimate may be a gross overestimate or a gross underestimate."
In any case, I was not being disingenuous or flippant. I have carefully considered the question of how likely it is that Eliezer will be able to play a crucial role in a FAI project if he continues to exhibit a strategy qualitatively similar to his current one and my main objection to SIAI's strategy is that I think it extremely unlikely that Eliezer will be able to have an impact if he proceeds as he has up until this point.
I will be detailing why I don't think that Eliezer's present strategy toward working toward an FAI is a fruitful one in a later top level post.
It sounds, then, like you're averaging probabilities geometrically rather than arithmetically. This is bad!
I understand your position and believe that it's fundamentally unsound. I will have more to say about this later.
For now I'll just say that the arithmetical average of the probabilities that I imagine I might ascribe to Eliezer's current strategy resulting in an FAI to be 10^(-9).