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timtyler comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong
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Another red flag is when someone else helpfully does the calculation for you - and then expects you to update on the results. Looking at the long history of Pascal-like wagers, that is pretty likely to be an attempt at manipulation.
"I believe SIAI’s probability of success is lower than what we can reasonably conceptualize; this does not rule it out as a good investment (since the hoped-for benefit is so large), but neither does the math support it as an investment (donating simply because the hoped-for benefit multiplied by the smallest conceivable probability is large would, in my view, be a form of falling prey to “Pascal’s Mugging”."