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RobinZ comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong
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I'm looking at gcc-4.5.0.tar.gz.
That includes the source code, the binaries, the documentation, the unit tests, changelogs ... I'm not surpised it's pretty big!
I consider it pretty likely that it's possible to program a human-like intelligence with a compressed source code of less than 50 MB.
However, I'm much less confident that the source code of the first actual human-like intelligence coded by humans (if there is one) will be that size.