Let's pick an example. How probable do you think it is that Islam is a true religion? (There are several ways to take care of logical contradictions here, so saying 0% is not an option.)

Suppose there were a machine--for the sake of tradition, we can call it Omega--that prints out a series of zeros and ones according to the following rule. If Islam is true, it prints out a 1 on each round, with 100% probability. If Islam is false, it prints out a 0 or a 1, each with 50% probability.

Let's run the machine... suppose on the first round, it prints out a 1. Then another. Then another. Then another... and so on... it's printed out 10 1's now. Of course, this isn't so improbable. After all, there was a 1/1024 chance of it doing this anyway, even if Islam is false. And presumably we think Islam is more likely than this to be false, so there's a good chance we'll see a 0 in the next round or two...

But it prints out another 1. Then another. Then another... and so on... It's printed out 20 of them. Incredible! But we're still holding out. After all, million to one chances happen every day...

Then it prints out another, and another... it just keeps going... It's printed out 30 1's now. Of course, it did have a chance of one in a billion of doing this, if Islam were false...

But for me, this is my lower bound. At this point, if not before, I become a Muslim. What about you?

You've been rather vague about the probabilities involved, but you speak of "double digit negative exponents" and so on, even saying that this is "conservative," which implies possibly three digit exponents. Let's suppose you think that the probability that Islam is true is 10^-20; this would seem to be very conservative, by your standards. According to this, to get an equivalent chance, the machine would have to print out 66 1's.

If the machine prints out 50 1's, and then someone runs in and smashes it beyond repair, before it has a chance to continue, will you walk away, saying, "There is a chance at most of 1 in 60,000 that Islam is true?"

If so, are you serious?