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Furcas comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong
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Agreed. It's why I'm so annoyed when even smart atheists say that God was an ok hypothesis before evolution was discovered. God was always one of the worst possible hypotheses!
Or, put more directly: Unless the theist is deluding himself. :)
I'm confused. In the comments to my post you draw a distinction between an "event" and a "huge set of events", saying that complexity only applies to the former but not the latter. But Islam is also a "huge set of events" - it doesn't predict just one possible future, but a wide class of them (possibly even including our actual world, ask any Muslim!), so you can't make an argument against it based on complexity of description alone. Does this mean you tripped on the exact same mine I was trying to defuse with my post?
I'd be very interested in hearing a valid argument about the "right" prior we should assign to Islam being true - how "wide" the set of world-programs corresponding to it actually is - because I tried to solve this problem and failed.