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Mitchell_Porter comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong
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Less than 1 in 1 billion! :-) May I ask exactly what the proposition was? At the link you say "probability of ... you succeeding in playing a critical role on the Friendly AI project that you're working on". Now by one reading that probability is 1, since he's already the main researcher at SIAI.
Suppose we analyse your estimate in terms of three factors:
(probability that anyone ever creates Friendly AI) x (conditional probability SIAI contributed) x (conditional probability that Eliezer contributed)
Can you tell us where the bulk of the 10^-9 is located?