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NancyLebovitz comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong
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The biggest optimist I have come across is Peter Voss. His estimate in 2009 was around 8 years - 7:00 in. However, he obviously has something to sell - so maybe we should not pay too much attention to his opinion - due to the signalling effects associated with confidence.
Optimist or pessimist?
In his own words: Increased Intelligence, Improved Life.