= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Will_Newsome comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (726)
I recur to my concern about selection effects. If it really is reasonable to place a large amount of probability mass 15 years into the future, why are virtually all mainstream scientists (including the best ones) apparently oblivious to this?
I do think that it's sufficiently likely that the people in academia have erred that it's worth my learning more about this topic and spending some time pressing people within academia on this point. But at present I assign a low probability (~5%) to the notion that the mainstream has missed something so striking as a large probability of a superhuman AI within 15 years.
Incidentally, I do think that decisive paradigm changing events are very likely to occur over the next 200 years and that this warrants focused effort on making sure that society is running as possible (as opposed to doing pure scientific research with the justification that it may pay off in 500 years).
A fair response to this requires a post that Less Wrong desperately needs to read: People Are Crazy, the World Is Mad. Unfortunately this requires that I convince Michael Vassar or Tom McCabe to write it. Thus, I am now on a mission to enlist the great power of Thomas McCabe.
(A not-so-fair response: you underestimate the extent to which academia is batshit insane just like nearly every individual in it, you overestimate the extent to which scientists ever look outside of their tiny fields of specialization, you overestimate the extent to which the most rational scientists are willing to put their reputations on the line by even considering much less accepting an idea as seemingly kooky as 'human-level AI by 2035', and you underestimate the extent to which the most rational scientists are starting to look at the possibility of AGI in the next 50 years (which amounts to non-trivial probability mass in the next 15). I guess I don't know who the very best scientists are. (Dawkins and Tooby/Cosmides impress me a lot; Tooby was at the Summit. He signed a book that's on my table top. :D ) Basically, I think you're giving academia too much credit. These are all assertions, though; like I said, this response is not a fair one, but this way at least you can watch for a majoritarian bias in your thinking and a contrarian bias in my arguments.)
I look forward to the hypothetical post.
As for your "not-so-fair response" - I seriously doubt that you know enough about academia to have any confidence in this view. I think that first hand experience is crucial to developing a good understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of academia.
(I say this with all due respect - I've read and admired some of your top level posts.)
I definitely don't have the necessary first-hand-experience: I was reporting second-hand the impressions of a few people who I respect but whose insights I've yet to verify. Sorry, I should have said that. I deserve some amount of shame for my lack of epistemic hygiene there.
Thanks! I really appreciate it. A big reason for the large amounts of comments I've been barfing up lately is a desire to improve my writing ability such that I'll be able to make more and better posts in the future.