timtyler comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong

23 Post author: multifoliaterose 19 August 2010 10:47PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (726)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: timtyler 01 October 2010 05:13:44PM *  0 points [-]

A poll of mainstream scientists sounds like a poor way to get an estimate of the date of arrival of "human-level" machine minds - since machine intelligence is a complex and difficult field - and so most outsiders will probably be pretty clueless.

Also, 15 years is still a long way off: people may think 5 years out, when they are feeling particularly far sighted. Expecting major behavioral changes from something 15 years down the line seems a bit unreasonable.