timtyler comments on The Importance of Self-Doubt - Less Wrong
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A poll of mainstream scientists sounds like a poor way to get an estimate of the date of arrival of "human-level" machine minds - since machine intelligence is a complex and difficult field - and so most outsiders will probably be pretty clueless.
Also, 15 years is still a long way off: people may think 5 years out, when they are feeling particularly far sighted. Expecting major behavioral changes from something 15 years down the line seems a bit unreasonable.