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WrongBot comments on Transparency and Accountability - Less Wrong
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Hi Airedale,
Thanks for your thoughtful comments. I'm missing a good keyboard right now so can't respond in detail, but I'll make a few remarks.
I'm well aware that SIAI has done some good things. The reason why I've focusing on the apparent shortcomings of SIAI is to encourage SIAI to improve its practices. I do believe that at the margin the issue worthy of greatest consideration is transparency and accountability and I believe that this justifies giving to VillageReach over SIAI.
But I'm definitely open to donating to and advocating that others donate to SIAI and FHI in the future provided that such organizations clear certain standards for transparency and accountability and provide a clear and compelling case for room for more funding.
Again, I would encourage you (and others) who are interested in existential risk to write to the GiveWell staff requesting that GiveWell evaluate existential risk organizations including SIAI and FHI. I would like to see GiveWell do such work soon.
What about everything else that isn't the margin? What is your expected value of SIAI's public accomplishments, to date, in human lives saved? What is that figure for VillageReach? Use pessimistic figures for SIAI and optimistic ones for VillageReach if you must, but come up with numbers and then multiply them. Your arguments are not consistent with expected utility maximization.
You would be much better off if you were directly offering SIAI financial incentives to improve the expected value of its work. Donating to VillageReach is not the optimal use of money for maximizing what you value.
You may well be right about this, I'll have to think some more about this :-). Thanks for raising this issue.