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timtyler comments on Transparency and Accountability - Less Wrong
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Considered. Not convinced. If that was intended as an argument, then EY was having a very bad day.
He is welcome to his opinion but he is not welcome to substitute his for mine.
The ending was particularly bizarre. It sounded like he was saying that treasury bills don't pay enough interest to make up for the risk that the US may not be here 300 years from now. But we should, for example, consider the projected enjoyment of people we imagine visiting our nature preserves 500 years from now, as if their enjoyment were as important as our own, not discounting at all for the risk that they may not even exist.
Eliezer doesn't disagree: as he says more than once, he's talking about pure preferences, intrinsic values. Other risks do need to be incorporated, but it seems better to do so directly, rather than through a discounting heuristic. Larks seems to implicitly be doing this with his P(AGI) = 10^-9.