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Emile comments on The Smoking Lesion: A problem for evidential decision theory - Less Wrong
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Worth referencing:
The Smoking Lesion on the wiki.
Timeless Decision Theory and Meta-Circular Decision Theory, where Eliezer discusses this problem (among others)
(By the way, your blog has some interesting posts!)
Thanks. I added the two links suggested by the way. Should be following up on the causality post in the next few days.