TobyBartels comments on The Smoking Lesion: A problem for evidential decision theory - Less Wrong

3 [deleted] 23 August 2010 09:01AM

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Comment author: TobyBartels 23 August 2010 04:40:57PM *  1 point [-]

For the correlation with Omega to be 100%, one-boxing would have to be ABSOLUTELY IRRESISTABLE when there was a million in the box...

Well, yeah, which is why people resist the story about Omega, think it must be nonsense, and decide to two-box (although it would be better to explicitly reject the story). Or interpret it to imply backwards causality (in which case even CDT makes you one-box) or something else that violates the laws of physics as I know them.

This is one reason to stick with probabilistic versions of Newcomb's Paradox.

In both cases (Newcomb's Paradox and the Smoking Lesion), this seems to another example of the difficulty with 0 and 1 as probabilities.