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Larks comments on The prior of a hypothesis does not depend on its complexity - Less Wrong
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I'm not convinced that example 1 works. "A and B and C" and "A or B or C" do have roughly the same complexity. It is then after we look at the content that we then update our estimates based on the logical form of the claims to give P(A and B and C) < P(A or B or C).
Consider that the complexity of "A and B" is a lot less than "(A and B) or (A and C) or (A and D)", but P(A and B) < P((A and B) or (A and C) or (A and D))