Vladimir_Nesov comments on The prior of a hypothesis does not depend on its complexity - Less Wrong
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The problem with your example is that 'not-S' is not an event, it's a huge set of events. It's like talking about the integer 452 and the 'integer' not-452.
The simplest beliefs about the events within that set can be extremely simple. For example, if S is described by the bits 1001001, the beliefs corresponding to non-S would be, "the first bit is 0', or "the second bit is 1", or, "the third bit is 1", and so forth.
Events aka hypotheses are sets of programs.