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JamesAndrix comments on The prior of a hypothesis does not depend on its complexity - Less Wrong
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I think this wrong, but I'm not sure how to directly counter it. so just some notes:
When are "A and B" and "A or B" both predictors that fit the existing data?
If it turns out that the laws of physics are themselves the result of a simple algorithm, wouldn't that seem obvious in retrospect?
The added complexity is not about explanation. Your arrival at .5 is based on a ton of evidence about coins.