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Manfred comments on The prior of a hypothesis does not depend on its complexity - Less Wrong
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It still seems relevant to me, since like in the "if my brother's wife's first son's best friend flips a coin, it will fall heads" example, the prior probability actually comes from opening up the statement and looking inside, in a way that would also differentiate just fine between stubbing 3 toes and stubbing 3^3^3 toes.