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Manfred comments on The prior of a hypothesis does not depend on its complexity - Less Wrong
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Not sure. I must've gone crazy for a minute there, thinking something like "being able to influence 3^^^^3 people is a huge conjunction of statements, thus low probability" - but of course the universal prior doesn't work like that. Struck that part.
It still seems relevant to me, since like in the "if my brother's wife's first son's best friend flips a coin, it will fall heads" example, the prior probability actually comes from opening up the statement and looking inside, in a way that would also differentiate just fine between stubbing 3 toes and stubbing 3^3^3 toes.