private_messaging comments on Self-fulfilling correlations - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (47)
This is of course what I have in mind.
If you take a die that you measure to be perfectly symmetrical and have chance of 1/6 to land on each side (after, say, >10 bounces), and you check your reasoning about the die by throwing it, and measuring probability of it landing on each side, you'd need quite a lot of throws until the strength of evidence from deviations can overwhelm the strength of the reasoning. That is to say, your prior for probability being very close to 1/6 is high and for any other value, very low. The experiments are not always deterministic; deterministic experiments, if anything, are an exception.