If N is at least 18 it’s hard to think of a rational criteria under which believing you are 1 in 10^N is delusional whereas thinking you are 1 in 10^(N-12) is not.
Really? How about "when you are, in fact, 1/10^(N-12) and have good reason to believe it"? Throwing in a large N doesn't change the fact that 10^N is still 1,000,000,000,000 times larger than 10^(N-12) and nor does it mean we could not draw conclusions about belief (2).
(Not commenting on Eliezer here, just suggesting the argument is not all that persuasive to me.)
10^N is still 1,000,000,000,000 times larger than 10^(N-12)
Here, here. That is a trillion times more probable!
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