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James_Miller comments on Less Wrong: Open Thread, September 2010 - Less Wrong
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Really? How about "when you are, in fact, 1/10^(N-12) and have good reason to believe it"? Throwing in a large N doesn't change the fact that 10^N is still 1,000,000,000,000 times larger than 10^(N-12) and nor does it mean we could not draw conclusions about belief (2).
(Not commenting on Eliezer here, just suggesting the argument is not all that persuasive to me.)
To an extremely good approximation one in a million events don't ever happen.
To an extremely good approximation this Everett Branch doesn't even exist. Well, it wouldn't if I used your definition of 'extremely good'.
Your argument seems to be analogous to the false claim that it's remarkable that a golf ball landed exactly where it did (regardless of where it did land) because the odds of that happening were extremely small.
I don't think my argument is analogous because there is reason to think that being one of the most important people to ever live is a special happening clearly distinguishable from many, many others.
Yet they are quite easy to generate - flip a coin a few times.