Morendil comments on Less Wrong: Open Thread, September 2010 - Less Wrong
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The journalistic version:
The abstract from the actual study (on "Late-Life Alcohol Consumption and 20-Year Mortality"):
(Maybe the overlooked confounding factor is "moderation" by itself, and people who have a more relaxed, middle-of-the-road attitude towards life's pleasures tend to live longer?)
The study looks at people over 55 years of age. It is possible that there is some sort of selection effect going on -- maybe decades of heavy drinking will weed out all but the most alcohol-resistant individuals, so that those who are still drinking heavily at 55-60 without ever having been harmed by it are mostly immune to the doses they're taking. From what I see, the study controls for past "problem drinking" (which they don't define precisely), but not for people who drank heavily without developing a drinking problem, but couldn't handle it any more after some point and decided themselves to cut back.
Also, it should be noted that papers of this sort use pretty conservative definitions of "heavy drinking." In this paper, it's defined as more than 42 grams of alcohol per day, which amounts to about a liter of beer or three small glasses of wine. While this level of drinking would surely be risky for people who are exceptionally alcohol-intolerant or prone to alcoholism, lots of people can handle it without any problems at all. It would be interesting to see a similar study that would make a finer distinction between different levels of "heavy" drinking.
These are fine conclusions to live by, as long as moderate drinking doesn't lead you to heavy drinking, cirrhosis and the grave. Come visit Russia to take a look.
The discussion of the same paper on Overcoming Bias has reminded me of another striking correlation I read about recently:
http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/07/beer-makes-bud-wiser.html
It seems that for whatever reason, abstinence does correlate with lower performance on at least some tests of mental ability. The question is whether the controls in the study cover all the variables through which these lower abilities might have manifested themselves in practice; to me it seems quite plausible that the answer could be no.
A hypothesis: drinking is social, and enjoying others' company plays a role in survival (perhaps in learning too?).
That's very interesting, but I'm not sure I trust the article's statistics, and I don't have access to the full text. Could someone take a closer look and confirm that there are no shennanigans going on?