gwern comments on Less Wrong: Open Thread, September 2010 - Less Wrong

3 Post author: matt 01 September 2010 01:40AM

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Comment author: gwern 08 September 2010 01:07:52PM *  5 points [-]

Relevant to our akrasia articles:

If obese individuals have time-inconsistent preferences then commitment mechanisms, such as personal gambles, should help them restrain their short-term impulses and lose weight. Correspondence with the bettors confirms that this is their primary motivation. However, it appears that the bettors in our sample are not particularly skilled at choosing effective commitment mechanisms. Despite payoffs of as high as $7350, approximately 80% of people who spend money to bet on their own behaviour end up losing their bets.

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/09/should-you-bet-on-your-own-ability-to-lose-weight.html

Comment author: Sniffnoy 08 September 2010 08:29:39PM 1 point [-]

I recall someone claiming here earlier that they could do anything if they bet they could, though I can't find it right now. Useful to have some more explicit evidence about that.