Okay, I guess I missed what you were implicitly curious about.

Well, that's the key thing for me -- not "How smart is Marcello now?", but how many people were at least at Marcello's level at that time, yet not patiently taken under EY's wing and given his precious time?

At the time there wasn't a Visiting Fellows program or the like (I think), and there were a lot fewer potential FAI researchers then than now. However, I get the impression that Marcello was and is an exceptional rationalist. 'Course, I share your confusion that Eliezer would be so impressed by what in hindsight like such a simple application of previously learned knowledge. I think Eliezer (probably unconsciously) dramatized his whole recollection quite a bit. Or it's possible he'd almost completely lost faith in humanity at that point -- it seems he was talking to crazy wannabe AGI researchers all the time, after all. That said, since my model is producing lots of seemingly equally plausible explanations, it's not a very good model. I'm confused.

Still, I think Marcello was and is exceptionally talented. The post is just a really poor indicator of that.