there is a valley of bad rationality between religion and PD-satisficing rationality

I hadn't seen this insight expressed so clearly before, thank you.

The majority of the population doesn't think people have a decent chance of living forever in this world.

If we're reasoning from the values of the majority, the majority are religious, and are hoping that there is a non-zero chance that during those years in jail, you might be saved, and wind up spending eternity in heaven rather than hell. Of course, most prisons are...shall we say less than optimally designed for this purpose.