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BlackHumor comments on The Skeptic's Trilemma - Less Wrong
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I think the Ten Plagues of Egypt is more likely to be a fiction than to be based on a real event.
I think the entire story of Exodus from Egypt is more likely to be (mostly) fiction than based on a real event.
As Eliezer himself said in that post, the Egyptians were "known for their obsessive record-keeping". If anything remotely comparable to the Ten Plagues or the Exodus happened in Egypt, they ought to have recorded it. That they didn't is very strong evidence that nothing happened.