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lionhearted comments on A "Failure to Evaluate Return-on-Time" Fallacy - Less Wrong
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I find myself doing something very similar when it comes to every day activities. Let's say I am searching for my missing sock and I have three locations to visit: A, B, C, with probabilities of finding my sock there: 80%, 15%, 5%. For some reason I keep wanting to search C, then B, before A. In my mind this kind of goes like this "let's make sure it's in none of the weird places and then I can be very sure it's in A and search it thoroughly". Empirically, most often if I just started with A, I would have been successful...80% of the time.
But to answer OP more directly: I feel that in most cases it's simple akrasia and the fear of succeeding.
Yeah, maybe it's just that. I love that Bruce post by the way, that's one of my favorite posts on here. That one and "Generalizing From One Example" are probably my favorite non-Eliezer posts.