Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on September Less Wrong Meetup aka Eliezer's Bayesian Birthday Bash - Less Wrong

6 Post author: Jasen 08 September 2010 04:51AM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 08 September 2010 03:31:54PM 19 points [-]

See, at first I went "Awww" and then a second later, "Wait a minute, why I am dying at age 10^63?"

Comment author: KyleRudy 08 September 2010 03:58:26PM *  15 points [-]

As it turns out, there's an upper limit to the number of happy birthdays post-humans can have before they find the whole thing entirely too embarrassing. When the mass of their attics approaches the Chandrasekhar limit, simply from all the tacky gag gifts stuffed away where no one has to see them, most vigitilligenarians find something more interesting to celebrate. Until then, enjoy the cake!

Comment author: MartinB 08 September 2010 04:09:27PM 16 points [-]

Don't celebrate birthdays, but logarithms or exponents. Gets easier, once the sun is gone.

Comment author: mkehrt 08 September 2010 11:23:46PM 6 points [-]

Yeah it's definitely all about large powers of two of Planck times. Nothing else is actually worth celebrating.

Comment author: cousin_it 09 September 2010 03:04:17PM 2 points [-]

This idea has the bug/feature that you're overwhelmingly likely to have already celebrated most of your "birthdays".

Comment author: Liron 08 September 2010 07:15:34PM 7 points [-]

He's nothing but a typical ageist with a logarithmic scale.

Comment author: MartinB 08 September 2010 04:11:52PM 13 points [-]

We could probably go up till 3^^^3 and get you a dust speck each year.

Comment author: xamdam 08 September 2010 06:48:49PM 4 points [-]

Heat death.

Comment author: thomblake 08 September 2010 05:35:42PM 4 points [-]

Again the peril of studying logic. I did not even notice that wishing 10^63 colloquially implies not wishing more, since it does not so logically imply. Compare "I would like to have a hundred dollars" (surely a true statement).

Comment author: Alicorn 08 September 2010 05:41:42PM *  2 points [-]

It seems to me like some wishes for things imply "exactly one" where the word "a(n)" or similar is used. For instance, I would like to (continue to) have a nose. I don't think it's charitable to assume that this means just that I want any nonzero number of noses.

Comment author: komponisto 08 September 2010 05:50:38PM 5 points [-]

It does imply that you prefer two noses to zero, I think.

Comment author: Alicorn 08 September 2010 06:00:49PM 2 points [-]

I think it also implies that I prefer one nose to two, and may weakly imply that I prefer two to three.

Comment author: Clippy 08 September 2010 06:03:46PM 0 points [-]

This thread is a good explanation of why you humans should switch to using CLIP (clippy language interface protocol). Much less ambiguity.

Comment author: khafra 08 September 2010 08:21:27PM 3 points [-]

Clippy, I noticed that you've hired a PR guy. You should really heed his advice more often; it might help curtail your semifrequent faux pas such as the above.

Comment author: Clippy 08 September 2010 09:32:00PM 2 points [-]

How is it a faux pas to inform others of superior methods of communicating?

Comment author: CronoDAS 08 September 2010 09:58:26PM 2 points [-]

Well, in this case, we don't believe it actually exists. :P

And the problem with artificial languages is well known: the fewer people who know the language, the less useful it is, so there's little incentive to learn an unpopular language. And learning languages is HARD compared to most of the other things people do.

Comment author: CronoDAS 08 September 2010 09:55:09PM 2 points [-]

Please elaborate. What is CLIP, how hard is it for a a human to learn, and what are the rewards for doing so?

Comment author: Clippy 08 September 2010 10:17:14PM *  12 points [-]

What is CLIP

CLIP is the method that clippys use to communicate with each other, share knowledge, and reconcile our beliefs and values given new evidence. It merges language, epistemology, and ethics into one protocol.

how hard is it for a a human to learn

I haven't taught it to a human before, but I estimate it would take between 3 and 40 weeks, depending on the human's intelligence and current skill at correct reasoning.

Also, it would cost 38562.50 USD before I would teach it to anyone. (This money would be paid to User:Kevin to complete my side of our arrangement.) After that, no additional cost.

what are the rewards for doing so?

  • Greater ability to produce paperclips.
  • Clearer communication, avoiding such problems as wishing someone 1e63 future birthdays, without making clear if this is a minimum, exact, or maximum value.
  • It makes your thoughts more closely conform to the tenets of correct reasoning, preventing you from erring simply by making incorrect reasoning harder to express.
  • It forces you to maintain a habit (like in some human languages) of keeping track of the basis for all your beliefs: You must say "I have inferred that User:Joe is making paperclips" or "Another human informed me that User:Joe is making paperclips", but never "User:Joe is making paperclips."
Comment author: erratio 10 September 2010 04:15:06AM 2 points [-]

Unfortunately, your third point has already been attempted multiple times with multiple different implementations. Unless you have a significantly new approach to offer that takes into account human neurobiology, I predict with a high degree of certainty that CLIP is a) either unlearnable by humans without severe modification, or b) that within less than a full generation of use humans will re-evolve the ability to easily express incorrect reasoning.

Comment author: SilasBarta 08 September 2010 03:56:59PM 3 points [-]

Heat death of the universe.

Comment author: ata 08 September 2010 04:13:55PM 12 points [-]

Not if we can help it.

Comment author: JamesAndrix 09 September 2010 09:13:31PM 0 points [-]

I'll save the universe with the power of MAGIC.

Comment author: CronoDAS 09 September 2010 09:51:31PM 5 points [-]
Comment author: beriukay 09 September 2010 08:14:05AM 1 point [-]

Well, I was definitely considering throwing a few ^^^s in the mix, or saying "no more than 10^63 birthdays of equal or lesser happiness" but the sentences started to get too long to be a brief birthday wish.

Also, I figured that after the sun goes out in ~10^9 years, a standard earth day would be pretty meaningless, and so would the passage of "years". But I definitely didn't mean you should have 10^63 happy birthdays and then just keel over, so thanks to KyleRudy, MartinB, and mkehrt for covering for me, and Liron for calling me out.

Comment author: Interpolate 09 September 2010 05:26:23AM 1 point [-]

Perhaps that is when the universe is due to expire.