jimrandomh comments on September Less Wrong Meetup aka Eliezer's Bayesian Birthday Bash - Less Wrong
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With probability 0.95, Eliezer will have a happy birthday. With probability 0.01, something will happen to spoil his mood. With probability 0.01, his mood will be off without an obvious external cause. And with probability 0.03, Eliezer is a P-zombie and can only appear to enjoy his birthday.