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Will_Newsome comments on Intellectual Hipsters and Meta-Contrarianism - Less Wrong
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That was quite a rant!
I hope I don't come across as thinking "the worst" about those involved. I expect they are all very nice and sincere. By way of comparison, not all cults have deliberately exploitative ringleaders.
Really? Really? You actually think the level of DOOM is cold realism - and not a ploy to attract funding? Why do you think that? De Garis and Warwick were doing much the same kind of attention-seeking before the SIAI came along - DOOM is an old school of marketing in the field.
You encourage me to speculate about the motives of the individuals involved. While that might be fun, it doesn't seem to matter much - the SIAI itself is evidently behaving as though it wants dollars, attention, and manpower - to help it meet its aims.
FWIW, I don't see what I am saying as particularly "contrarian". A lot of people would be pretty sceptical about the end of the world being nigh - or the idea that a bug might take over the world - or the idea that a bunch of saintly programmers will be the ones to save us all. Maybe contrary to the ideas of the true believers - if that is what you mean.
Anyway, the basic point is that if you are interested in DOOM, or p(DOOM), consulting a DOOM-mongering organisation, that wants your dollars to help them SAVE THE WORLD may not be your best move. The "follow the money" principle is simple - and often produces good results.
Right, I said metacontrarian. Although most LW people seem SIAI-agnostic, a lot of the most vocal and most experienced posters are pro-SIAI or SIAI-related, so LW comes across as having a generally pro-SIAI attitude, which is a traditionally contrarian attitude. Thus going against the contrarian status quo is metacontrarian.
I'm confused. Anyone trying to accomplish anything is going to try to get dollars, attention, and manpower. I'm confused as to how this is relevant to the merit of SIAI's purpose. SIAI's never claimed to be fundamentally opposed to having resources. Can you expand on this?
What makes that comparison spring to mind? Everyone is incredibly critical of Eliezer, probably much more so than he deserves, because everyone is racing to be first to establish their non-cult-victim status. Everyone at SIAI has different beliefs about the relative merits of different strategies for successful FAI development. That isn't a good thing -- fractured strategy is never good -- but it is evidence against cultishness. SIAI grounds its predictions in clear and careful epistemology. SIAI publishes in academic journals, attends scientific conferences, and hosts the Singularity Summit, where tons of prominent high status folk show up to speak about Singularity-related issues. Why is cult your choice of reference class? It is no more a cult than a typical global warming awareness organization. It's just that 'science fiction' is a low status literary genre in modern liberal society.
I don't know about anybody else, but I am somewhat disturbed by Eliezer's persistent use of hyphens in place of em dashes, and am very concerned that it could be hurting SIAI's image.
And I say the same about his use of double spacing. It's an outdated and unprofessional practice. In fact, Anna Salamon and Louie Helm are 2 other SIAI folk that engage in this abysmal writing style, and for that reason I've often been tempted to write them off entirely. They're obviously not cognizant of the writing style of modern academic thinkers. The implications are obvious.
Another reason that I suspect is more important than trying to signal non-cult-victim status is that people who do want to be considered part of the cult believe that the cause is important and believe that Eliezer's mistakes could destroy the world (for example).
To recap, the SIAI is funded by donations from those who think that they will help prevent the end of the world at the hands of intelligent machines. For this pitch to work, the world must be at risk - in order for them to be able to save it. The SIAI face some resistance over this point, and these days, much of their output is oriented towards convincing others that these may be the end days. Also there will be a selection bias, with those most convinced of a high p(DOOM) most likely to be involved. Like I said, not necessarily the type of organisation one would want to approach if seeking the facts of the matter.
You pretend to fail to see connections between the SIAI and an END OF THE WORLD cult - but it isn't a terribly convincing act.
For the connections, see here. For protesting too much, see You're calling who a cult leader?
No, I see it, look further, and find the model lacking in explanatory power. It selectively leaves out all kinds of useful information that I can use to control my anticipations.
Hmuh, I guess we won't be able to make progress, 'cuz I pretty much wholeheartedly agree with Vladimir when he says:
and Nick Tarleton when he says:
"This one is right" for example. ;)
I didn't say anyone was "racing to be first to establish their non-cult-victim status" - but it is certainly a curious image! [deleted parent comment was a dupe].
Oops, connection troubles then missed.