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timtyler comments on Intellectual Hipsters and Meta-Contrarianism - Less Wrong
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The argument is not information free. It is just lower on information than implied. If people had never previously made predictions of disaster and everything else was equal then that tells us a different thing than if humans predicted disaster every day. This is even after considering selection effects. I believe this applies somewhat even considering the possibility of dust.
Uh, it wasn't given as an "argument" in the first place. Evidence which does more strongly relate to p(DOOM) includes the extent to which we look back and see the ashes of previous failed technological civilisations, and past major mishaps. I go into all this in my DOOM video.