MC_Escherichia comments on Bayes' rule =/= Bayesian inference - Less Wrong

37 Post author: neq1 16 September 2010 06:34AM

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Comment author: MC_Escherichia 16 September 2010 10:55:34AM 3 points [-]

If the null hypothesis was true, the probability that we would get 3 heads or less is 0.08

Is the idea that the coin will land heads 90% of the time really something that can be called the "null hypothesis"?

Comment author: Matt_Simpson 16 September 2010 03:33:09PM *  7 points [-]

Statistically, there's nothing wrong with the null hypothesis being p=0.9. It's probably not a test you would see very often in practice because usually there is nothing interesting about p=0.9. But if you wanted to test whether or not p=0.9 for some reason - any reason, setting the null hypothesis as p=0.9 is a perfectly valid (frequentist) way of doing it.

Comment author: neq1 16 September 2010 12:07:51PM 0 points [-]

Hm, good point. Since the usual thing is .5, the claim should be the alternative. I was thinking in terms of trying to reject their claim (which it wouldn't take much data to do), but I do think my setup was non-standard. I'll fix it later today