Oscar_Cunningham comments on Bayes' rule =/= Bayesian inference - Less Wrong

37 Post author: neq1 16 September 2010 06:34AM

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Comment author: cousin_it 16 September 2010 09:44:20AM *  1 point [-]

I don't understand how you can hold a position like that and still enjoy the post. How do you parse the phrase "my prior for the probability of heads" in the second example?

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 16 September 2010 11:28:11AM *  1 point [-]

I hadn't seen that, but you're right that that sentence is wrong. "Probability" should have been replaced with "frequency" or something. A prior on a probability would be a set of probabilities of probabilities, and would soon lead to infinite regress.

Comment author: neq1 16 September 2010 01:33:14PM 1 point [-]

only if you keep specifying hyper-priors, which there is no reason to do

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 16 September 2010 02:50:26PM 0 points [-]

Exactly. There's no point in the first meta-prior either.