neq1 comments on Bayes' rule =/= Bayesian inference - Less Wrong

37 Post author: neq1 16 September 2010 06:34AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (70)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: MC_Escherichia 16 September 2010 10:55:34AM 3 points [-]

If the null hypothesis was true, the probability that we would get 3 heads or less is 0.08

Is the idea that the coin will land heads 90% of the time really something that can be called the "null hypothesis"?

Comment author: neq1 16 September 2010 12:07:51PM 0 points [-]

Hm, good point. Since the usual thing is .5, the claim should be the alternative. I was thinking in terms of trying to reject their claim (which it wouldn't take much data to do), but I do think my setup was non-standard. I'll fix it later today