orthonormal comments on Bayes' rule =/= Bayesian inference - Less Wrong

37 Post author: neq1 16 September 2010 06:34AM

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Comment author: orthonormal 16 September 2010 11:51:21PM 1 point [-]

I can understand how you'd get that confusion from the names of the approaches, but you've got it rather wrong. Bayesians incorporate all evidence that frequentists use, including observed frequencies in large data sets; this results in their posterior distributions being centered very narrowly on the frequentists' point estimate.

Comment author: DanielLC 17 September 2010 12:04:27AM -1 points [-]

In large data sets the Bayesian method gets a similar answer, but it's not the same method. If you flip a coin once, and get heads, the frequentist method would say that the coin always lands on heads. The Bayesian method would never result in saying the coin always lands on heads unless it was assumed from the beginning.

Comment author: orthonormal 17 September 2010 12:15:54AM 2 points [-]

I didn't expect I'd end up saying this, but frequentists aren't that naive either.

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 17 September 2010 03:03:45PM 0 points [-]

What does a frequentist do in this situation?

Comment author: DanielLC 17 September 2010 04:33:06AM 0 points [-]

They won't use that method when it gives results that absurd, but that's still what the method says they should do.