orthonormal comments on Bayes' rule =/= Bayesian inference - Less Wrong
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neq1,
Thanks for the great learning. One apparent inconsistency puzzled me a bit:
You go out of your way to say that you expect Θsens>1-Θspec (which looks sensible to me), then follow up by choosing a pair of priors which, assuming independence, appear to violate this expectation a significant fraction of the time - perhaps 20-25%, just eyeballing the distributions.
Can you comment on the apparent inconsistency, or straighten out my misconceptions?