Craig_Heldreth comments on Open Thread, September, 2010-- part 2 - Less Wrong
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I was interested to see what discussion this post would generate but I'm a little disappointed with the results. It looks like further evidence that instrumental rationality is hard and that the average lesswronger is not significantly better at it than the average person without a particular interest in rationality.
I'm going to throw out a bunch of suggestions for things that I think a rationalist should at least consider trying when approaching this specific problem as an exercise in instrumental rationality. I anticipate that people will immediately think of reasons why these ideas wouldn't work or why they wouldn't want to do them even if they did. Many of these will be legitimate criticisms but if you choose to comment along these lines please honestly ask yourself if these are ideas that you had already considered and rejected or whether your objections are in part confabulation.
One obvious reason for not trying any of these things is that the issue is just not that important to you and so doesn't justify the effort but if you feel that way ask yourself how you would approach the problem if it was that important to you. I haven't tried all these things myself. I rejected some as either too much effort for uncertain return on investment or in some cases had ethical qualms about them but I think they are the kind of things that anyone serious about instrumental rationality should have at least considered.
One thing that immediately jumped out at me as something of a hobbyist photographer was the casual remarks that people are 'not photogenic'. It seems to me that the word 'photogenic' should be like a red flag to a rationalist bull. It should immediately trigger a desire to unpack the meaning of the word and figure out what objective properties of reality it is describing. In this context the next response should be to figure out what elements that contribute to this concept are most amenable to conscious, directed efforts to fix.
What people generally seem to mean by 'not photogenic' is 'the pictures I've seen of this person do not seem to reflect the level of attractiveness that they possess in person'. Presumably people who are 'not photogenic' are not made of some different type of material that reacts differently to light than photogenic people. The problem must either be a lack of good quality photographs or an issue with uncomfortable body language when being photographed. Both of these are fixable given sufficient effort. I get the impression that at least some people in the thread didn't take the relatively low cost steps of reading OkCupid's advice on this issue or used the tool they provide for determining the picture that works best from the ones you have available.
OkCupid provides lots of data on OkTrends about what traits are considered attractive, broken down by gender and in other ways. With a little bit of research on this topic it is possible to make a list of areas where you could increase your attractiveness to the average person of the age, gender, etc. you are interested in attracting. Some of these are hard to fix (it is difficult for a man to make himself taller or a woman to make herself younger) but others can be improved with effort and are worthwhile goals in themselves (losing weight, increasing your salary). Figure out what the best 'bang for the buck' improvements appear to be for your particular situation and goals and expend effort on them.
A/B testing is a standard approach to optimizing online material. With a little effort it is possible to apply this to an online dating profile. At a bare minimum you can track any changes you make and record statistics on what improves your results and what makes them worse. If you wanted to get serious about this you could generate multiple profiles in different cities with similar demographics to your own and run parallel A/B tests rather than serial ones (this is one of those 'ethical qualms' approaches I mentioned). There are all kinds of shortcomings with the data collected in this way and with properly controlling variables but if you're not collecting any data of this kind you are not maximizing the information you extract from the data potentially available to you.
While the data that sites like OkCupid make available is helpful there are lots of interesting questions that it doesn't provide answers to. This being the Internet you could gather some of this data yourself. If you want to know what your competition looks like you could set up a fake profile for the kind of partner you wish to attract and see what kinds of messages they get (those damn ethical qualms again). This approach is potentially scalable to generate quite large amounts of data.
So if we're all good instrumental rationalists why are we not doing these kinds of things? Well for one, they involve effort. Quite a lot of effort in some cases. Instrumental rationality is hard. If we're not asking ourselves these kinds of questions though we're not doing a very good job of instrumental rationality. How can we improve?
Matt you have some great points.
I have lurked so far in this subset of the open thread and am now willing to throw in a couple remarks on my view of OKCupid.
1.) The OK trends blog to me cannot be read as serious social statistics analysis. It's intent is to get hits and keep their sky high google page rank. It is almost entirely a marketing ploy, and I find it impossible to source them on topics like "what makes a good picture?", "what makes a good message?", "are you all a bunch of racists?", &c.
2.) I have used their site for a little more than a year. My experience there is almost entirely positive, but my expectations for it are small. I find the website gaudy and slowly loading, and have arrived at a practice of logging on once a week, on Sunday morning; I update my journal, answer any messages, and do a quick search. Many Sundays I see no point in sending anybody any messages at all. I only contact somebody if there is something in their profile which genuinely interests me and inspires me to write them a message which has at least one sentence in it which I like.
The vast majority of profiles have no such content. At least 80% of the time I go through a woman's profile and she does not have one item in there worthy of a comment. I read ten profiles this morning and sent messages to none.
3.) I have a theory that most of the women on OKCupid put almost no effort into it; they are not genuinely interested in meeting any of the OKCupid men; they are participating by some complex motivation somewhere between playing around in a virtual world and window shopping what might be out there on the off chance, extremely remote, that they decide they want to buy; and also to compare what is advertised in the virtual world with the reality that they see around them in the real world.
4.) If anybody wants to look at my profile, I am tgroupguy. I would link to it, but there are a couple things in my profile which are obviously not LessWrong mainstream. If you want to see it anyway, I would be interested in reading what you have to say. You may not want to post it here; if you send it to my okcupid box I will not see it until next Sunday morning, but I will respond.
(SarahC and Relsqui's profiles are very far above the OKCupid standard.)
One of the reasons that instrumental rationality is hard is that acquiring good data is hard. Imperfect data is generally better than no data however and there are other sources where you can find research into some of the same questions that OkCupid covers. Most of the advice in their 'Don't Be Ugly By Accident' post is just standard stuff for portrait photography for example which any book on photography would cover in great detail.
I would advise you to wear smaller glasses if that is possible given your eyesight.
I agree about OKT, as I noticed elsewhere. I also agree with Alicorn about the glasses, if that's practical and if at-a-glance attractiveness is sufficiently high priority for you.
Thanks for that. ; ) I don't feel I can remark on the way most women use their OKC profiles, because I don't read many of them and I try to stick to the extraordinary ones. But I can say that there are tons of men out there who are clearly parroting what they've been told will attract women, trying to come off as the perfect knight in shining armor while successfully avoiding showing any hint of personality. The effect is to make it seem like they're trying to attract the similarly generic woman so they can get married and have generic children.
I recommend looking up how to write the accents; some of these words change meaning without them. A common example is that "año" means "year" and "ano" means "anus." Not that any sane reader wouldn't know what you meant, but it's worth knowing anyway. Some verbs change with accents in ways which are much more subtle: "estudio" is first person present and "estudió" is third person preterite.
A few specific errors, if you're interested:
I'd use "estudiaba" rather than "estudié" because it refers to an ongoing process, rather than a single event in time. (By contrast, one might say "empezé estudiar español en el grado segundo," because one began to study at one point in time.)
I think you made a typo writing "en la escuela"; I would probably have written "a la escuela" (at school, rather than in school), but I'm not sure you're actually wrong. It might just be a style choice. Similarly, I'm guessing "facilidan" is meant to be "facilidad."
Your "vecindad" is singular, so it "tiene" many Spanish-speakers, not "tienen." And while "muchas personas" is technically correct, it's the equivalent of saying "many persons" in English--more common would be "mucha gente" (many people).
I'm not fluent either, so I can't promise that's exhaustive, but I've studied Spanish for many years and used to use it at work a lot. :)
There are fun quizzes and they tell you stuff about your personality. That's why I registered; my half-assed profile explicitly says I'm with someone and to message me only if you're interested in platonic friendship. I have made friends with one really nice couple, though.