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timtyler comments on Rationality Power Tools - Less Wrong
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Huh, I got the opposite impression - that the timeline for brain emulation was less uncertain than the timeline for AI. Our brain-scanning capacity is getting better and better, and once the resolution is high enough to get individual neurons and their connections, we can "just" make a computer model of that, run it, et voila, you got brain emulation!
There are some difficulties, but these seem to require less of a conceptual breakthrough than AI or (especially) FAI do. It's possible that some of it is technically impossible (maybe we can't get the resolution needed to track individual dendrites), or that some bits of neuron interaction are trickier than we thought.
My understanding is that - if we can't find even a single shortcut, whole human brain emulation will produce machine intelligence... eventually. However, engineering-based approaches seem highly likely to beat that path by a considerable margin.
Aeroplanes are not scanned birds, submarines are not scanned fish, cars are not scanned horses - and so on, and so forth.
As far as I can tell, whole human brain emulation as a route to machine intelligence is an approach that is based almost entirely upon wishful thinking by philosophers.