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dclayh comments on Error detection bias in research - Less Wrong
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My intuition is that this underestimates the occurrence, depending on the field. Let us define:
Then I'd assign over 80% to P(CE|SP).
My mom is a semi-retired neuroscientist, she's been telling me recently how appalled she's been with how many researchers around her are abusing standard stats packages in egregious ways. The trouble is that scientists have access to powerful software packages for data analysis but they often lack understanding of the concepts deployed in the packages, and consequently make absurd mistakes.
"Shooting yourself in the foot" is the occupational disease of programmers, and this applies even to non-career programmers, people who program as a secondary requirement of their job and may not even have any awareness that what they're doing is programming.
I strongly agree that you're more likely to get wrong results out of someone else's code than your own, because you tend to assume that they did their own error checking, and you also tend to assume that the code works the way you think it should (i.e. the way you would write it yourself), either or both of which may be false.
This is what led to my discovering a fairly significant error in my dissertation the day before I had to turn it in :) (Admittedly, self-delusion also played a role.)