In my opinion, there's no good evidence that Ad-36 is associated with weight gain. Even though it appears plausible from the results observed in animals, the facts that (1) a clear conflict of interest has been shown for the persons responsible for the greatest bulk of papers on the subject, (2) the studies in humans appear to suffer from severe sampling flaws which may be expected to obscure the proposed effect, and (3) the least flawed study (so far as I can determine) is the US military study suggest that the conclusion is, at best, speculative. I don't have a proper reference class to calibrate my estimate by, but I would tentatively say that "Ad-36 causes obesity in humans" has a surprisal of 10 bits.

Edit: This estimate is intentionally higher than my prior for the raw hypothesis but still very small.