To people who downvoted me: If you casually call bullshit on someone's facts, don't show any data yourself, and then it turns out they were right after all, you fail at rationality. Aumann theorem is overstated, but we'll never raise sanity waterline if we keep acting like it's all tribal politics.

There should be nothing casual about this - accusing someone of making shit up should be a big shout-out to the community boldly proclaiming "either mine or theirs Aumann weight is much lower than you estimated before, huge Bayesian network update imminent". There should be big red warning signs flashing everywhere.

If we get this right, then a person claiming something as fact will indeed be very good evidence that it is a fact. And a person calling bullshit on someone else's claims will be extremely strong evidence that it is indeed all bullshit. Not after they dig out piles after piles of data - this should only be necessary in exceptional circumstances.

If we need special rituals or formulas for such factual challenges, then let's come up with some.